By Fernan Angeles
EXPERTS from three prominent universities in the country discouraged the government from easing community quarantine restrictions in Metro Manila, with high emphasis on the possibility of another surge in COVID-19 cases as Christmas draws closer.
Claiming that the country’s number of COVID-19 cases is already headed downward, OCTA research team warned the national government against prematurely downgrading community quarantines.
In its latest report, the OCTA team said that the premature downgrade of the quarantine status in the national capital region may increase the risk of a surge in the number of COVID-19 infections in December. “The national government must sustain the GCQ status in the NCR coupled with further improvements in its testing, tracing and isolation programs not just to sustain the gains of the last MECQ but to also prevent a surge, especially around Christmas time.”
The OCTA research team comes from the University of the Philippines, University of Santo Tomas and Providence College.
“We caution the national government against prematurely downgrading the quarantine status in the identified high-risk areas and most especially the NCR as this may lead to exponential growth in the number of cases and deaths apart from overwhelming our health care system,” the report said.
The OCTA research team showed that the number of daily cases reported decreased from 4,300 in early August to 2,988 in late September.
They further said that the rate of transmission, number of cases, positivity rate, and measures for hospital resource utilization are all on a downward in Metro Manila.
“But this positive trend is not irreversible and significant efforts have to be undertaken by all stakeholders to sustain it,” the experts said.
“While the situation in the NCR has improved as the rate of transmission, the number of cases, as ell as the positivity rate and the measure for hospital resource utilization are all on a downward trend, it has not yet achieved the crucial 28 days case doubling time requirement set by IATF to be classified into an MGCQ status,” they added.
“Therefore, we recommend sustaining the current General Community Quarantine (GCQ) status for the NCR until it further improves its health indicators and qualifies for the MGCQ status,” the team said.
The UP OCTA research team also projected that the number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines may increase to a minimum of 380,000 to a maximum of 410,000 by October 31.
“The current trajectory (as of September 25) shows between 310,000 and 315,000 cases by September 30. It is likely we will reach the lower range of the previous projections, a very positive sign that we are headed in the right direction,” it said.
Meanwhile, the current COVID-19 hotspots, regions where newly reported cases increased over a two week period, are Benguet, Iloilo, Leyte, Misamis Oriental, and Nueva Vizcaya.