By Fernan Angeles
THE Department of Health does not seem convinced on the projection of University of the Philippines experts who expressed optimism on a trend that would see flattening of the COVID-19 curve by next month.
In a television interview Tuesday, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said she cannot categorically say if the infections of deadly global pandemic will flatten in September as projected by some UP experts.
Vergeire said the DOH will still consider the projection in setting up interventions to prevent the further spread of COVID-19.
“Hindi pa natin masasabi. Nothing is certain at this point. Although, itong mga models na ito, itong mga forecast na ito, tinitignan natin para magabayan din po natin ang ating response kung paano tayo magkakaroon ng interventions,” she said.
“Pero hindi pa po natin masasabi sa ngayon kung ito na ‘yung peak at kung makakapag-flatten tayo ng curve pagdating po ng katapusan ng September,” she added.
Vergeire issued the statement when asked if 194,000 current total number of cases could be the ‘peak’ amid the projection of experts that the COVID-19 curve will flatten in September.
On Monday, experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) – OCTA Research team said the number of COVID-19 cases is on the downward trend and approaching a flattened curve towards September.
The R-naught (R0), which describes the reproduction of COVID-19 cases, dropped from 1.5 in end of July to 1.1 now in August, according to the experts. An R0 below 1 means a flattened curve.
However, they warned that the trend could be reversed if the public and the government become complacent with the improvement.
Vergeire said the capacity of the healthcare system should also be considered not only the number of COVID-19 cases in assessing the situation of the country amid the pandemic.
“We just need to understand na kapag tinignan natin ang ating mga datos kailangan kasama po niyan sa pag-aaral ‘yung ating capacity ng health system. So it is not just number of cases,” she said.
According to Vergeire, the management of COVID-19 cases and the healthcare system is doing well.
As of Monday, the DOH reported 194,252 COVID-19 cases, with 132,042 recoveries and 3,010 fatalities.