By John Clifford Lintao
BY the end of September, cases of COVID-19 in the Philippines could reach to 375,000, says University of the Philippines experts in their newest projection.
In a reported dated August 27, the UP-OCTA research team said the projected total number of cases is 330,000 for a “lower” estimate, 350,000 for “median,” and 375,000 for “upper.”
The UP-OCTA researchers took note of reported a decrease in the numbers corresponding reproduction and new cases of COVID-19 in the last few days of the current month.
The reproduction number, which indicates the average number of people who may contract COVID-19 from an infected person, is at 1.03 from August 20 to 26. The ideal reproduction number is less than one, in which each existing infection causes less than one new infection and means “the disease will decline and eventually die out.”
They also observed that the average number of daily new cases is 4,073 from August 19 to 25, lower than 4,300 in the previous week.
UP experts hinted at the same scenario for Metro Manila which recorded a spike in COVID-19 cases in July.
The research team said the number of daily new cases is at 2,192 from August 21 to 27, down from 2,684 in the previous week. The reproduction number has fallen below one at 0.95.
The positivity rate has also decreased from 16 percent to 14 percent in the last two weeks.
Hospital bed and ICU occupancy rates in Metro Manila have likewise decreased, but the researchers said at least nine cities are still at critical level.
The researchers projected 180,000 to 210,000 COVID-19 cases in the NCR by September 30.
The Department of Health has recorded 205,581 cases in the country as of Thursday. This number includes 133,990 recoveries and 3,234 deaths.
The UP-OCTA research team is composed of professors Guido David, Ranjit Singh Rye, and Rev. Fr. Nicanor Austriaco; and Ma. Patricia Agbulos, with contributions from Eero Rosini Brillantes, Bernhard Egwolf, Troy Gepte, Franco Felizarta, Rodrigo Angelo Ong, Michael Tee, and Benjamin Vallejo, Jr.